A field of sunflowers with a cloudy sunset

Journal Club Article for August 6, 2021

This Fri­day, August 6, 2021, from 12–1pm, we will dis­cuss the linked arti­cle at our next week­ly Jour­nal Club meet­ing. The arti­cle is titled “Pro­ject­ed cli­mate change threat­ens pol­li­na­tors and crop pro­duc­tion in Brazil”, and will be pre­sent­ed by STEM Research intern Nathanaelle Brignol.

Abstract: Ani­mal pol­li­na­tion can impact food secu­ri­ty since many crops depend on pol­li­na­tors to pro­duce fruits and seeds. How­ev­er, the effects of pro­ject­ed cli­mate change on crop pol­li­na­tors and there­fore on crop pro­duc­tion are still unclear, espe­cial­ly for wild pol­li­na­tors and aggre­gate com­mu­ni­ty respons­es. Using species dis­tri­b­u­tion­al mod­el­ing, we assessed the effects of cli­mate change on the geo­graph­ic dis­tri­b­u­tion of 95 pol­li­na­tor species of 13 Brazil­ian crops, and we esti­mat­ed their rel­a­tive impacts on crop pro­duc­tion. We described these effects at the munic­i­pal­i­ty lev­el, and we assessed the crops that were grown, the gross pro- duc­tion vol­ume of these crops, the total crop pro­duc­tion val­ue, and the num­ber of inhab­i­tants. Over­all, con­sid­er­ing all crop species, we found that the pro­ject­ed cli­mate change will reduce the prob­a­bil­i­ty of pol­li­na­tor occur­rence by almost 0.13 by 2050. Our mod­els pre­dict that almost 90% of the munic­i­pal­i­ties ana­lyzed will face species loss. Decreas­es in the pol­li­na­tor occur­rence prob­a­bil­i­ty var­ied from 0.08 (per­sim­mon) to 0.25 (toma­to) and will poten­tial­ly affect 9% (man­darin) to 100% (sun­flower) of the munic­i­pal­i­ties that pro­duce each crop. Munic­i­pal­i­ties in cen­tral and south­ern Brazil will poten­tial­ly face rel­a­tive­ly large impacts on crop pro­duc­tion due to pol­li­na­tor loss. In con­trast, some munic­i­pal­i­ties in north­ern Brazil, par­tic­u­lar­ly in the north­west­ern Ama­zon, could poten­tial­ly ben­e­fit from cli­mate change because pol­li­na­tors of some crops may increase. The decline in the prob­a­bil­i­ty of pol­li­na­tor occur­rence is found in a large num­ber of munic­i­pal­i­ties with the low­est GDP and will also like­ly affect some places where crop pro­duc­tion is high (20% to 90% of the GDP) and where the num­ber of inhab­i­tants is also high (more than 6 mil­lion peo­ple). Our study high­lights key munic­i­pal­i­ties where crops are eco­nom­i­cal­ly impor­tant and where pol­li­na­tors will poten­tial­ly face the worst con­di­tions due to cli­mate change. How­ev­er, pol­li­na­tors may be able to find new suit­able areas that have the poten­tial to improve crop pro­duc­tion. The results shown here could guide pol­i­cy deci­sions for adapt­ing to cli­mate change and for pre­vent­ing the loss of pol­li­na­tor species and crop production.

https://massasoit.zoom.us/my/stemresearch

Meet­ing ID: 549 554 5262

Mas­sas­oit STEM events are open to ALL Mas­sas­oit stu­dents, fac­ul­ty, and staff.

Mas­sas­oit Com­mu­ni­ty Col­lege encour­ages per­sons with dis­abil­i­ties to par­tic­i­pate in its pro­grams and activ­i­ties. If you antic­i­pate need­ing any type of accom­mo­da­tion or have ques­tions relat­ed to access for this event, please con­tact the Divi­sion of Sci­ence and Math­e­mat­ics at sciencemath@massasoit.edu in advance of your par­tic­i­pa­tion or vis­it.


Pho­to by Saman­tha Kennedy on Unsplash

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